Thanks for checking for a Weekend Update, but we’re no longer doing these for the remainder of the 2012 season. For the latest on conditions, check for the most recent General Advisory and take a look through the most recent photos. We’ll continue to post advisories and photos through the end of the month.

Not much has changed today weather wise for the weekend, but it sure looks better for tomorrow than was being predicted yesterday.  Rain potential will taper off overnight due to the approaching cold front from the NW.  As clearing begins temperatures will fall Saturday morning and continue into Sunday.  Expect the mercury to be in the thirties during the day in the upper elevations before a clear Saturday night pushes air temps lower which will kick off a cooler trend for the week.

Early tomorrow morning fog is expected to lift putting the summits in the clear with a clearing trend through the day.  Valleys currently have about a 30% chance of showers for Saturday which seems a bit high from what I am seeing right now.  Either way, be ready for some precipitation potential in the morning and it getting better through the day.  This week’s warmth and rain has certainly sent us closer to our final melt-out date as run outs get shorter, crevasses open wider, and holes get bigger.  More ice has fallen and although some more will fall we have gotten through the worst of the season if you could actually graph the amount and frequency.  But as always, it only take one of the outlier chunks to cause a problem for you so continue to be vigilant in avoiding areas more likely to be in the ice run out. I.e. from the Center towards the right, or north.  A couple of the highest potential hazards right now are crevasses, holes and more things to run into.  You’ve heard about our crevasses and holes for a while now so I’ll avoid getting into all that again.  Take a look at the current advisory for a few location details.  However, I will say a few things on “ things to run into”.

As melting continues the disappearing snow exposes more terra firma.  Makes complete, obvious, and rational sense right?  Of course.  Something that may not be a completely obvious now compared to midwinter is the percentage or increased likelihood that you will run into something in case of a fall.  Midwinter you may fall down a long gully and slide on snow missing any objects, you may end up fine, or maybe not.  Now with more rocks exposed, constrictions being narrower, and run outs ending on 30-40 degree slopes a fall into objects increase.  So think through your activity, visualize the different potential outcomes if things don’t go as planned, and then….oh yah.. enjoy yourself!  Nobody would go up a steep narrow gully if they knew they would fall, it happens, but it’s always to the other guy.  The other guy was thinking the same thing.  Yes,.. you are a good skier, but so was the other guy.  What I am getting to is the idea that we don’t think through what happens if a mistake occurs, what will happen?  So…. objectively stand there for a minute… look at your objective… and ask – “what will happen if I don’t have the best run of my life, or the edges aren’t quite as good as they were before that liftline rock, or my 7 year old nephew played with my DIN settings? Hummm.

Am I Mr. Doom and Gloom?  I can sound like it sometimes I know, but I’m not the marketing department, I’m the hazard reporter.  In the hundreds, thousands, of these different reports and advisories I have written to you over the years I have tried to demonstrate mountain risk.  The different threats and hazard you will face in an effort to increase your safety and of course a little of the good stuff you will enjoy.  The risk reporting comes from seeing the outcome of things that haven’t gone so well for people in relation to avalanches, icefall, crevasses, undermining, falls, and weather.  Many of these things happened doing one of things they loved to do most, being in the mountains pursuing their sport.  Based on what I have seen over the years as we head into the late season falls into objects is a primary injury maker so think it through and mitigate the hazard by picking good fall lines.  Enjoy the improving weekend in whatever you do and take a look at some pictures we’ll post over the weekend as visibility improves.  See you in the hills.  Chris